Bowl watching 101
December 01, 2007
If you’re a Troy fan, which I guess most of the people who read this blog are…
...you need to hope Hawaii gets upset at home tonight by Washington tonight at 10:30 p.m. CST. That opens up a spot, because Hawaii drops out of the BCS to the Hawaii Bowl. Boise State is in its Humanitarian Bowl and Fresno State goes to the New Mexico Bowl. That would also knock a 6-6 Nevada team out of the bowl picture.
If Hawaii is in the BCS, Nevada is into one of the 3 WAC bowls listed above. Lots of crazy stuff has happened this football season, so I guess anything is possible.
Its 8:46 p.m., I’m finally on my computer at home with the TV in the background and the wife at work, so I’ll see if I can figure out anything else.
You also need to pull for Arizona to LOSE to Arizona State and make it to 5-7. If the BCS takes two Pac 10 schools, that opens up a Pac 10 spot. It’s currently 10-7 ASU at the half.
Again, it’s still all wishful speculation but anything can happen.
9:10 p.m. - If the Big 12 gets two teams in the BCS (it will), the Texas Bowl has an at-large. If the ACC gets two teams, the Humanitarian/MPC Computers/Boise-whatever Bowl has an opening. If the Big 10 gets two BCS spots, all of the 7-win teams would be in its Big 10 tie-ins and the 6-win teams still would be out of the picture. If the Pac 10 gets 2 BCS spots, the Armed Forces Bowl has a spot (unless Arizona comes back to beat Arizona State, but if that happens the Pac 10 won’t get 2 BCS spots).
Teams with 7 wins or more that SHOULD be left over: Troy, a MWC team (TCU), a Big 10 team (Mich. St, Indiana or Purdue - one of those teams).
If Hawaii loses, then 3 spots are available for those 3 teams. If Hawaii wins, 2 spots are left. Got to figure that TCU and the Big 10 team have the inside track because of fan support (admit it, that crowd wasn’t as good as it should have been today).
I’ll say this, though. Washington will be the toughest and most battle-tested team that Hawaii has played this year. But at 4-7, have they mailed in the season? I’ll also say this - they won’t be getting any “close” calls either.
Should be fun if you’re staying up late tonight. The athletic officials I talked to after the game feel that Troy’s only chance is if Hawaii loses or doesn’t make the BCS entirely.
9:23 p.m. - I sure hope I’m understanding all of this correct. I do know that West Virginia is currently squandering its chances of competing for a national championship.
9:55 p.m. - Arizona State is barely beating Arizona, 13-7 going to the 4th, and Arizona looks to be better team at the moment. An Arizona win would really hurt Troy’s hopes, that’s for sure. Not sure if it would deflate them entirely, but it wouldn’t help matters.
10:15 p.m. - Arizona’s climbing back in. Got a FG and cut the lead to 13-10 with about 8 minutes to go in the game. Again, an Arizona win might end things for Troy before the Hawaii game even gets started (unless the Armed Forces and Texas Bowls want Troy over name-your-Big-10-school and TCU)
10:23 p.m. - Troy fans need thank Rudy Carpenter. The ASU quarterback made 2 great throws on a drive, including a TD, and now has ASU up 20-10 with 4:23 left. Arizona’s offense has been pretty bad, so that might be ball game.
Note to you guys - a 6-6 team can go to a bowl if there’s a tie-in within its conference left. That’s why you’ll likely see a 6-6 Alabama team in the Indy Bowl (or a 6-6 South Carolina team). As I say that, Arizona had a 55-yard kickoff return to the ASU 45.
10:35 p.m. - And there you wonder why Bob Stoops is a much better coach than his brother, Mike. On 4th and goal from the 2, down 10 with still 2:06 left, he goes for it instead of kicking the field goal. And that pass falls IN-COM-PLETE (sorry, had to steal a line from the Troy P.A. guy). ASU almost got sacked for a safety and still could, I guess, but that call pretty much sealed the deal. You take the points every time and then worry about the onside kick.
10:49 p.m. - Wrap it up in yellow and brown. Arizona is 5-7. Now Troy fans need Hawaii to lose for Troy to have a spot waiting for it. (at least that’s how I’m figuring it)
10:55 p.m. - Lookie here. Washington’s up 7-0. Well, Hawaii hasn’t gotten the ball yet. Wait, they’re going to review....touchdown. Hawaii still hasn’t gotten the ball yet.
11:07 p.m. - Guess Charleston Southern really prepared the Rainbow Warriors for this. 14-0, Washington.
11:15 p.m. - Got an e-mail back from Kevin McDonald, the Executive Director of the Humanitarian Bowl. It said “I have been watching troy
It looks like the acc will send us a team but u never know.” He sent it from his blackberry.
11:21 p.m. - Goodness gracious. Somewhere in Reno, Nevada, they’re cursing because Washington’s going to keep pounding the mess out of Hawaii, sending them out of the BCS and Nevada out of its bowl game. I guess there’s still plenty of time for the Hawaii air attack to get in gear but they’re just getting manhandled.
11:30 p.m. - Try to imagine Chris Bradwell (or fill in another DT) carrying the ball in Troy’s spread offense. That’s how big Hawaii’s running backs are. Oops. HAwaii’s 290-pounder fumbles, and Washington recovers.
11:36 p.m. - Oof. Now Hawaii’s regular-sized running back fumbles. How many millions of dollars is Hawaii losing, you figure? Enough to buy Oahu, I guess
11:49 p.m. - Here come the Rainbow Warriors. TD Hawaii. Now it’s 21-7 and the Rainbow Warriors have momentum. I won’t display any bowl possibilities until the game is over.
Midnight - Refs give Washington the shaft by not reviewing a TD, but they get in on the next play anyway. 28-7. I’ve thought about it. If the BCS takes OSU in the championship and Illinois to the Rose, that means the ACC fills all its spots (including the Boise Bowl) and Troy and TCU are left for the Texas and Armed Forces Bowl. I think that’s right. Remember, that’s me thinking - not reporting.
For that to happen, Hawaii still has to either lose or be left out of the BCS even if they win. Oops, I just displayed some bowl possibilities as Washington is trying to remember how to play defense again.
12:08 a.m. - Huskies coach Ty Willingham is pacing. You guys might be, too. Hawaii strikes again. They’re still not as physical as Washington but that Colt Brennan guy looks like he knows what he’s doing. They’re still by no means a BCS team but they might not get left out if they win.
12:21 a.m. - You can’t have Hawaii score here, because they’re getting the ball to open the 2H. 28-14 still.
12:28 a.m. - Wow. another TD for Hawaii. 28-21 they’re down, but have all the momentum and get the ball to start the 2H. You better email every coach you know and tell them to not put Hawaii in their top 25, because if they win, Troy better hope Hawaii gets shut out of the BCS.
12:31 a.m. - Halftime, and HAwaii probably feels like its winning.
1 a.m. - Going to sit on the recliner and watch the rest of the game. After the game, Hawaii win or lose, I’ll detail what chances, if any, Troy has. Maybe you’ll wake up to the blog entry.
2:09 a.m. - I’m back. That bad illegal forward pass call may keep Troy out of a bowl game. I don’t see Hawaii losing this one. They’re on a roll. A BCS team? No, LSU would mudhole them. Wait, Les Miles is LSU’s coach.
