Bowl watching 101
Drew Champlin
If you’re a Troy fan, which I guess most of the people who read this blog are…
...you need to hope Hawaii gets upset at home tonight by Washington tonight at 10:30 p.m. CST. That opens up a spot, because Hawaii drops out of the BCS to the Hawaii Bowl. Boise State is in its Humanitarian Bowl and Fresno State goes to the New Mexico Bowl. That would also knock a 6-6 Nevada team out of the bowl picture.
If Hawaii is in the BCS, Nevada is into one of the 3 WAC bowls listed above. Lots of crazy stuff has happened this football season, so I guess anything is possible.
Its 8:46 p.m., I’m finally on my computer at home with the TV in the background and the wife at work, so I’ll see if I can figure out anything else.
You also need to pull for Arizona to LOSE to Arizona State and make it to 5-7. If the BCS takes two Pac 10 schools, that opens up a Pac 10 spot. It’s currently 10-7 ASU at the half.
Again, it’s still all wishful speculation but anything can happen.
9:10 p.m. - If the Big 12 gets two teams in the BCS (it will), the Texas Bowl has an at-large. If the ACC gets two teams, the Humanitarian/MPC Computers/Boise-whatever Bowl has an opening. If the Big 10 gets two BCS spots, all of the 7-win teams would be in its Big 10 tie-ins and the 6-win teams still would be out of the picture. If the Pac 10 gets 2 BCS spots, the Armed Forces Bowl has a spot (unless Arizona comes back to beat Arizona State, but if that happens the Pac 10 won’t get 2 BCS spots).
Teams with 7 wins or more that SHOULD be left over: Troy, a MWC team (TCU), a Big 10 team (Mich. St, Indiana or Purdue - one of those teams).
If Hawaii loses, then 3 spots are available for those 3 teams. If Hawaii wins, 2 spots are left. Got to figure that TCU and the Big 10 team have the inside track because of fan support (admit it, that crowd wasn’t as good as it should have been today).
I’ll say this, though. Washington will be the toughest and most battle-tested team that Hawaii has played this year. But at 4-7, have they mailed in the season? I’ll also say this - they won’t be getting any “close” calls either.
Should be fun if you’re staying up late tonight. The athletic officials I talked to after the game feel that Troy’s only chance is if Hawaii loses or doesn’t make the BCS entirely.
9:23 p.m. - I sure hope I’m understanding all of this correct. I do know that West Virginia is currently squandering its chances of competing for a national championship.
9:55 p.m. - Arizona State is barely beating Arizona, 13-7 going to the 4th, and Arizona looks to be better team at the moment. An Arizona win would really hurt Troy’s hopes, that’s for sure. Not sure if it would deflate them entirely, but it wouldn’t help matters.
10:15 p.m. - Arizona’s climbing back in. Got a FG and cut the lead to 13-10 with about 8 minutes to go in the game. Again, an Arizona win might end things for Troy before the Hawaii game even gets started (unless the Armed Forces and Texas Bowls want Troy over name-your-Big-10-school and TCU)
10:23 p.m. - Troy fans need thank Rudy Carpenter. The ASU quarterback made 2 great throws on a drive, including a TD, and now has ASU up 20-10 with 4:23 left. Arizona’s offense has been pretty bad, so that might be ball game.
Note to you guys - a 6-6 team can go to a bowl if there’s a tie-in within its conference left. That’s why you’ll likely see a 6-6 Alabama team in the Indy Bowl (or a 6-6 South Carolina team). As I say that, Arizona had a 55-yard kickoff return to the ASU 45.
10:35 p.m. - And there you wonder why Bob Stoops is a much better coach than his brother, Mike. On 4th and goal from the 2, down 10 with still 2:06 left, he goes for it instead of kicking the field goal. And that pass falls IN-COM-PLETE (sorry, had to steal a line from the Troy P.A. guy). ASU almost got sacked for a safety and still could, I guess, but that call pretty much sealed the deal. You take the points every time and then worry about the onside kick.
10:49 p.m. - Wrap it up in yellow and brown. Arizona is 5-7. Now Troy fans need Hawaii to lose for Troy to have a spot waiting for it. (at least that’s how I’m figuring it)
10:55 p.m. - Lookie here. Washington’s up 7-0. Well, Hawaii hasn’t gotten the ball yet. Wait, they’re going to review....touchdown. Hawaii still hasn’t gotten the ball yet.
11:07 p.m. - Guess Charleston Southern really prepared the Rainbow Warriors for this. 14-0, Washington.
11:15 p.m. - Got an e-mail back from Kevin McDonald, the Executive Director of the Humanitarian Bowl. It said “I have been watching troy
It looks like the acc will send us a team but u never know.” He sent it from his blackberry.
11:21 p.m. - Goodness gracious. Somewhere in Reno, Nevada, they’re cursing because Washington’s going to keep pounding the mess out of Hawaii, sending them out of the BCS and Nevada out of its bowl game. I guess there’s still plenty of time for the Hawaii air attack to get in gear but they’re just getting manhandled.
11:30 p.m. - Try to imagine Chris Bradwell (or fill in another DT) carrying the ball in Troy’s spread offense. That’s how big Hawaii’s running backs are. Oops. HAwaii’s 290-pounder fumbles, and Washington recovers.
11:36 p.m. - Oof. Now Hawaii’s regular-sized running back fumbles. How many millions of dollars is Hawaii losing, you figure? Enough to buy Oahu, I guess
11:49 p.m. - Here come the Rainbow Warriors. TD Hawaii. Now it’s 21-7 and the Rainbow Warriors have momentum. I won’t display any bowl possibilities until the game is over.
Midnight - Refs give Washington the shaft by not reviewing a TD, but they get in on the next play anyway. 28-7. I’ve thought about it. If the BCS takes OSU in the championship and Illinois to the Rose, that means the ACC fills all its spots (including the Boise Bowl) and Troy and TCU are left for the Texas and Armed Forces Bowl. I think that’s right. Remember, that’s me thinking - not reporting.
For that to happen, Hawaii still has to either lose or be left out of the BCS even if they win. Oops, I just displayed some bowl possibilities as Washington is trying to remember how to play defense again.
12:08 a.m. - Huskies coach Ty Willingham is pacing. You guys might be, too. Hawaii strikes again. They’re still not as physical as Washington but that Colt Brennan guy looks like he knows what he’s doing. They’re still by no means a BCS team but they might not get left out if they win.
12:21 a.m. - You can’t have Hawaii score here, because they’re getting the ball to open the 2H. 28-14 still.
12:28 a.m. - Wow. another TD for Hawaii. 28-21 they’re down, but have all the momentum and get the ball to start the 2H. You better email every coach you know and tell them to not put Hawaii in their top 25, because if they win, Troy better hope Hawaii gets shut out of the BCS.
12:31 a.m. - Halftime, and HAwaii probably feels like its winning.
1 a.m. - Going to sit on the recliner and watch the rest of the game. After the game, Hawaii win or lose, I’ll detail what chances, if any, Troy has. Maybe you’ll wake up to the blog entry.
2:09 a.m. - I’m back. That bad illegal forward pass call may keep Troy out of a bowl game. I don’t see Hawaii losing this one. They’re on a roll. A BCS team? No, LSU would mudhole them. Wait, Les Miles is LSU’s coach.
Posted by Drew Champlin on 12/01 at 08:38 PM
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Troy-FAU game updates
Drew Champlin
12:42 - Been here for a while, just now getting set up on the blog. It’s amazing how time flies while I’m socializing instead of getting you the news first and foremost. I spoke with offensive coordinator Tony Franklin and he expects wide receiver Josh Allen to play, but he wasn’t sure about running back Kenny Cattouse. This was about 11 a.m.
Both suffered high ankle sprains last Tuesday against MTSU. Both are dressed out, and I bet both play.
Right now, they’re doing senior day intros. This is the time I wish the press box windows were open because I like hearing stuff like that. But, then again, it’s OK to not hear some of the PA announcing at the games (like Western Kentucky and UL-Lafayette.
1:19 - and FAU strikes first on a 1-yard run. This Rusty Smith cat is the real deal. He had a nice playaction on a 3rd and 8 and found his RB on a wheel route that burned Marcus Richardson to the Troy 4. It’s the first time an opponent scored on Troy in the first quarter since the ULL game. 7-0 FAU
1:31 - Troy gets a FG. 7-3. Les Miles Larry Blakeney went for it on two 4th downs, but now the defense has to stop the Owls.
1:36 - Jerrel Jernigan is headed to the locker room and it looks like he’s favoring a leg. Now here’s confusion. FAU was called for holding on a kickoff return that went for a touchback. After getting ready to kickoff again from the 40 (huh?), it was announced that Troy declined the penalty. “Can I have those five minutes of my life back,” one scribe asked.
1:51 - Troy gets a FG. 7-6. A touchdown was called back because of holding, and Kennard Burton was underthrown and overthrown for what would have been touchdown passes. Omar had to come out after getting hit on a pass, but was back in. Jernigan’s walking gingerly on the sidelines.
AFTER ONE QUARTER, it’s FAU 7, Troy 6.
2:12 - Let’s talk a little about injuries. Kenny Cattouse played some early, but right now he’s got his helmet off and he’s on the sideline. At this point, I would be surprised if he got back in the game. Jerrel Jernigan has still yet to re-enter and that looks to be causing some chaos. You’re seeing a lot more of Patrick Cherry and Zack Marcum. Now, look, Fred Turner just caught a pass. Those guys don’t play very often but will get more chances today.
2:17 p.m. - TROY 9, FAU 7. With 5:13 left in the half, Greg Whibbs is now the school record holder with his 49th career field goal.
2:37 p.m. - HALFTIME - Troy 9, FAU 7
Who would have thought Troy would have just three field goals?
Omar Haugabook may have re-injured his hamstring. He went down on Troy’s last possession for a loss of 3 and came up gingerly. Early indications are the hamstring, but that’s not definite yet. Tanner Jones, bless his heart, hasn’t looked good on either of his two throws but he’s showing confidence.
2:50 p.m. - Tanner Jones and Jamie Hampton are warming up. No sign of Omar. Was told that Jerrel Jernigan is out for the game and Omar was holding high and low (on his leg). But Omar is not on the field at this moment. He’s probably getting that thing wrapped up with some IVs and a cortizone.
We’ll see.
2:56 p.m. - Omar is throwing, warming up, he’s got something on his right leg but I’m not sure what it was. Maybe it was just cramps? We’ll see if he goes out there after this kickoff.
2:57 p.m. - and Omar is back. Jernigan’s still running around. Well Gary Banks just fumbled and FAU recovered at the Troy 27.
3:05 p.m.- One team wants to go to New Orleans. Right now, it looks like it’s FAU. Owls capitalize after the Banks fumble and get a 2-yd TD run from Charles Pierre. 14-9 with a banged up quarterback, banged up senior running back (who likely won’t play) and a banged up Jerrel Jernigan (who likely won’t play).
3:15. Dawk gets 23. Dawk gets 11. Dawk comes out of the game and the 5’7, 160-pounder gets to run the ball up the middle. Omar sacked, and Troy settles for a FG. Now it’s 14-12. Might need to go to the power run game with the 5th year senior (Dawk).
3:23 p.m. - FAU’s big, slow fullback just ran for a 41-yard touchdown, powering past the Troy defense. That came out of nowhere. How’s that Recliner Bowl looking? 21-12 FAU.
3:33 p.m. - FAU 28-12. Right now, Troy is being out-coached, out-played, out-everythinged. Whatever defensive plan that Jeremy Rowell had for this game isn’t working, and Troy is tackling like they did in the Arkansas and Florida games.
3:37 p.m. - The 2nd 5th-year senior of the day loses a fumble, as Sean Dawkins lost a fumble that Kris Bartels recovered at the FAU 36.
END OF THREE QUARTERS - FAU 28, Troy 12.
Another senior gets burned, this time Leodis McKelvin gets burned and Smith hits Gent for a 50-yard play. 2nd and 11 from the Troy 13.
3:44 p..m. - I just canceled my reservation at the JW Marriott
oh, FAU scored again. 35-12. 14:54 left
3:49 p.m. - I get back from the bathroom and Troy has it at the 11. Just scored, congrats Zack Marcum, but it’s still 35-19.
4:04 p.m. - Troy scores again, misses the 2-point try. 35-25. At halftime in basketball, Troy leads TAMCC 30-29 on the road.
Now these people are telling me they need my interview requests.
Posted by Drew Champlin on 12/01 at 12:42 PM
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GAMEDAY: Florida Atlantic at Troy
Drew Champlin
Florida Atlantic (6-5, 5-1 Sun Belt) at Troy (8-3, 6-0 Sun Belt)
Time: 1 p.m. CST
TV: CSS Radio: 94.7 FM WTBF (man that Jerry Miller’s going to sound good on color), more web information available at http://www.troytrojans.com
Key matchups: Troy’s defense against the FAU offense. FAU is led by sophomore and 3,000-yard passer Rusty Smith, a guy who coach Howard Schnellenberger compares to Hall of Famer Bernie Kosar and says will be a NFL first-round draft pick. Smith is probably the best pure passer in the league, but Troy’s front four will need to get pressure on him to try and render him ineffective. If he handles pressure well and gets his passes off, Troy’s secondary will need to be on alert.
Big question: Can Troy, as it has all season, take care of business, or will it be upset like Middle Tennessee was last year? You remember. MTSU was supposed to win. It didn’t. Troy is supposed to win this year. Will it? Give the team credit - it has answered every challenge thrown its way and, so far, has proven that it wants to go back to the New Orleans Bowl. If the Trojans don’t win, at 8-4, they will still likely be home for the holidays. There would be a couple of open spots in bowls across the country (likely the Armed Forces Bowl, perhaps the Humanitarian Bowl), but look for those to take 7-win teams from power conferences. Hey, it’s their choice.
Player to watch, Troy: QB Omar Haugabook. The senior who grew up less than an hour from FAU’s campus plays his last home game after revolutionizing the position for Troy in his two seasons. Without Haugabook, it’s certain Troy wouldn’t be where it is today. Can he keep the magic going for one more game?
Player to watch, FAU: LB Frantz Simeon. The team and Sun Belt’s leading tackler is a leading candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. He and Cergile Sincere are both very good linebackers and can disrupt any offense.
Prediction: Troy 31, FAU 14. In this conference, Troy’s too good this season.
Posted by Drew Champlin on 12/01 at 04:06 AM
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