Sunday, May 11, 2008
Out of luck
The math says the Auburn baseball team still has a shot at the Southeastern Conference Tournament in Hoover. But surely we know better than to trust a sneaky thing like math.
In reality, Auburn’s chances of finishing in the top eight of the SEC standings are dead in the water. The Tigers’ chances of going to Hoover have been minimal ever since their SEC series loss at Alabama in the last weekend of April. They entered the final three weeks of the season needing an unrealistic 6-3 finish. At this point, they’re 3-3, thanks to a 2-1 series win at home against 11th-place Mississippi State and a 1-2 series loss at Ole Miss this weekend. This weekend’s series was plenty dramatic: Auburn had every chance to win Friday’s game but fell just short, then cruised to a Saturday win thanks to a dominating effort by Taylor Thompson, then saw its offense shut down on Sunday by Ole Miss pitchers Cody Satterwhite and Scott Bittle.
Auburn faced a tough task even with a win Saturday. With a loss, the Tigers are 11-16 in the SEC, 2.5 games out of eighth place with three games to go. Next week’s series against LSU doesn’t make things any easier: The Bayou Bengals have won nine consecutive SEC games, making them the hottest team in the league and perhaps the hottest team in the country. Even if Auburn somehow sweeps LSU, it won’t be enough. The Tigers need last-place MSU to sweep Arkansas in Fayetteville, Ark., need Tennessee (currently last in the SEC East) to sweep South Carolina in Columbia, S.C., and need Ole Miss to sweep Kentucky at home.
In other words, it’s not going to happen.
What does this mean for fourth-year head coach Tom Slater? The widespread assumption is that Slater needs to qualify for the SEC Tournament to keep his job. I think that’s a fair standard; AU hasn’t been to Hoover in the Slater era and hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2005, Slater’s first year. Auburn’s SEC record is the worst in the league over the four-year Slater era. Perhaps worst of all, there’s been very little improvement in the program: While some players—notably Taylor Thompson and Grant Dayton this year—have shown improvement, many have not. Throw in grade troubles—at least two of last year’s starters aren’t with this year’s team because of academic issues—and the big picture isn’t pretty.
It’s not always an easy thing to discuss someone losing their job, particularly someone as committed to the job as Tom Slater is to Auburn University. It’s tough to blame Slater for some of the team’s failings, or to believe that a different coach could lead this fairly limited team to more than 11 wins at this point in the SEC season. But it’s the nature of college athletics that coaches receive too much credit in good times and too much blame in bad times. The bad times are certainly here for Auburn baseball—they’ve been here for several years—and Slater may have to pay the price.
Auburn administrators are keeping mum on Slater’s future. But with this season all but certain to end with another disappointment, a decision could be coming soon.