Auburn University beat reporter

Sure, Auburn hasn’t even started the 2008 season. But the news is out about the first nonconference matchup of the 2011—yep, 2011!—season.

Auburn will host Samford, according to a press release from the Samford athletic department. As you’re probably aware, Samford coach Pat Sullivan is a fairly notable Auburn grad; maybe you’ve heard he won a little thing called the Heisman Trophy as an Auburn quarterback in 1971.

It’s part of a process of schedule-strengthening for Samford, a Football Championship Subdivision school. (That’s the group formerly known as Division I-AA, for you old-schoolers out there.) Samford will play at least one Football Bowl Subdivision (formerly Division I-A) team in each of the next three seasons, starting with the 2009 season opener at UCF (AKA “Central Florida.") Samford has also reached an agreement to play Florida State—currently coached by former Samford QB Bobby Bowden—in 2010.

The 2011 Auburn-Samford game will be the first meeting between AU and Samford since 1993, though the schools have met 27 times overall. (Not to kill the suspense 39 months in advance, but Auburn is 25-0-1 in the series.)

Sports Writer/Designer

I also wrote a mediocre SEC Preview for The Corner News. You can check that out here.

Sports Writer/Designer

The constraints of newsprint often prevent unskilled columnists such as myself from completely making our point.

I feel I may have done that with Tuesday’s effort.

My basic underlying point is that in the absence of a playoff it doesn’t make much sense having human polls make up two-thirds of the equation in determining a national champion, especially with the way preseason polls can screw things up. You could say that the Harris Poll doesn’t have a preseason poll, and you’d be right, but I don’t think I’m the only one that has questioned the validity of that poll and the qualifications of its panel.

Having a system such as the one the BCS abandoned following the 2004 season, where the formula also includes strength of schedule and the quality win component. You’re talking about each poll making up one-fifth of the formula, as opposed to one-third now.

But in getting back to the preseason poll argument, I thought it might be interesting to go back through the AP Preseason Polls in the BCS era (even in the last two seasons when it hasn’t been a part of the formula) and try to see what effect, if any, it might’ve had on how things turned out.

1998

The national championship game featured Tennessee, the only unbeaten BCS-conference school, and one-loss Florida State.

Not much was expected of the Vols after they lost Peyton Manning, and they were ranked 10th in the AP preseason poll, But being the only undefeated obviously virtually guaranteed them a spot.

The Seminoles, on the other hand, started the season ranked No. 2 and were able to move back up the ladder after a humiliating loss at N.C. State in their second game, even surpassing what was probably a superior Ohio State team that had been ranked No. 1 preseason. The Buckeyes lost in the first week of November at home to an average Michigan State team.

But one area that might even be more interesting than the championship game is who gets the at-large spots, because you’re talking about costing schools millions of dollars.

In 1998, Ohio State got an at-large bid to the Sugar Bowl after starting the year ranked No. 1. The other at-large bid went to a 9-2 Florida team that had started the season No. 3.

This left 11-1 Kansas State, which lost in the Big XII title game to fall out of the national title game, out in the cold in the Alamo Bowl. The Wildcats started the year sixth. It also left out an undefeated Tulane team that didn’t begin the year in the rankings.

Ohio State deserved to be there, but KSU and the Green Wave might’ve deserved a spot more than the Gators.

1999
Picking the title game wasn’t much of a chore in 99, Florida State and Virginia Tech were the only unbeatens among the big schools.

The Seminoles started the year ranked No. 1 and became the first team to go wire-to-wire. The Hokies began the year ranked 13th, and managed to just edge out a one-loss Nebraska team.

This year was pretty high up there on the at-large bid injustice. A 9-2 Tennessee team that began the year ranked No. 2 and a 9-2 Michigan team that started out eighth got the at-large spots. That left out an undefeated Marshall team out of the MAC, as well as a 9-2 Michigan State team that had beaten Michigan. Both began the year unranked.

2000
Ah the first year of massive wailing and gnashing of teeth in the BCS era. Oklahoma rose all the way from 19th to No. 1 after their Octoberfest of wins over Texas, Kansas State and Nebraska. But Florida State, which began the year No. 2, narrowly edged out Miami (preseason No. 5) despite the Canes being ranked higher in the polls. This is one where, I guess, you can’t entirely blame the polls. Washington was also left out, despite the fact that the Huskies beat Miami, who beat FSU. The Huskies started the year 13th.

Despite being unranked in the preseason, Notre Dame received one of the two at-large berths by virtue of being Notre Dame. 10-1 Oregon State got the other at-large bid, also despite being unranked to start the year. Virginia Tech was relegated to the Gator Bowl, despite a 10-1 record. They started out 11th.

2001:
This year was, like 2000, actually a casualty of the system I’m advocating. Miami was the only unbeaten after starting the year No. 2, and Nebraska got the other spot in the title game despite being ranked No. 4 in the final polls. They started the year ranked fourth, while 10-1 Oregon (preseason No. 7) and 10-2 Colorado (unranked to start the year) were left out.

Nebraska actually got the at-large bid into the title game since they didn’t even win their division, let alone their conference. Preseason No. 1 Florida got the other at-large bid at 9-2, though there wasn’t anyone left with much of a case.

2002:
Another year where things went rosily for all involved, as Miami (Preseason No. 1) and Ohio State (13th out of the gates) got to the title game as the only unbeatens.

This year also featured the two best at-large bids of the BCS era in 11-1 Iowa (unranked preseason) and red-hot 10-2 USC (20th).

2003
Another year where the non-human model doesn’t look quite so good, as preseason No. 1 Oklahoma still managed to stay at No. 1 thanks to their huge leads in the computer polls and several quality wins after their loss to Kansas State in the Big XII title game.

USC, which started eighth and moved up to No. 1 in the AP Poll, was left out thanks to the computers. LSU, which started 14th and moved up to No. 2, got in.

Oklahoma got one of the at-large bids, and probably should have. Just not to the title game. Preseason No. 2 Ohio State got the other after a 10-2 season, and probably deserved it, as well.

2004
I don’t think I have to explain what happened this year to this audience.

Utah became the first non-BCS school to garner an at-large bid after its undefeated season, and Boise State just missed out on one. Texas benefitted from its start at No. 7 to just edge out preseason No. 12 California for the other at-large bid.

2005
Another clean-cut year. USC and Texas, preseasons 1 and 2, ran the table and were the only ones deserving of a shot.

Notre Dame got another at-large bid by virtue of being Notre Dame, and the other went to preseason No. 6 Ohio State (9-2). Either of those spots could’ve easily gone to 10-1 Oregon (unranked) or 10-2 Virginia Tech (eighth), but the Buckeyes and Irish got those spots due to BCS rules.

2006
Ohio State ran the table after starting the year No. 1 and was the only clear-cut choice for the title game. Preseason No. 7 Florida (12-1) just edged out preseason No. 14 Michigan for the other spot.

In 2006 the at-large bids expanded to four, so injustices were fewer. The only really deserving team left out was Wisconsin at 11-1 (unranked), but the Big Ten already had two spots with Ohio State and Michigan (BCS rules only allow two teams per conference). Boise State got the second non-BCS at-large bid, and Notre Dame sneaked into a spot at 10-2 after starting out No. 2. LSU got the other spot.

2007
And here we have the coup de grace.

Ohio State once again made it to the title game, this time by virtue of being one of only three teams with less than two losses. LSU was rewarded for two months of underachieving, getting the other spot after starting out No. 2. Other two-loss teams such as USC (No. 1), Oklahoma (No. 8, and Virginia Tech (No. 9) were left out, along with one-loss Kansas (unranked) and undefeated Hawaii (23rd)

10-2 Georgia (13th) got one at-large spot and deserved it, Kansas (11-1) got another, but it should’ve gone to Missouri (11-2) both started unranked, Hawaii got the third non-BCS at-large, and 9-3 Illinois got the last because the Rose Bowl just has to have its parade. Missouri was the only team with a gripe.

I’m not sure if I proved anything other than that I love looking at college football reference sites way too much, but I think we’ve identified at least a mild trend here.