Alabama: The reddest of the red
Are you an Alabamian wondering why neither major party’s presidential candidate has come a-callin’ in the Yellowhammer State?
A look at RealClearPolitics’ state poll index will answer all your questions.
Click here and click on “RCP Average” to sort by spread.
There are the eight battleground states perched at the top.
And then you have the “leaners,” the eight states that are trending one way based on current polls and historical data.
That means that voters in only 16 states out of 50 are actually seeing the candidates—and they will decide the next president of the United States.
For the rest of us, we live in states where the outcome on Nov. 4 is all but assured, barring some unforeseen calamity.
Where does Alabama rank on that list?
Well, scroll down ... keep looking ... keep looking ...
Yes, that’s us—Dead last.
John McCain leads Barack Obama by 26 percent in Alabama. It’s good news for Republicans, who don’t have to spend their time—or their resouces—defending the state for the GOP. But it’s no doubt disappointing for Democrats, who were counting on Obama to energize and mobilize the state’s African-American population. A high turnout for Obama would undoubtedly help Democrats in their downticket races, especially for judgeships and county positions.
It probably won’t make much a difference in the races that are already high-profile, like the heavily publicized and wildly funded contest between Jay Love and Bobby Bright for Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District. And it probably won’t hurt Democrats who already have strong name ID, like Lucy Baxley, who’s running for PSC president. But it will definitely impact other races where Democrats are competitive and need an extra boost to get over the top.
Alabama’s Third Congressional District is one such race.
Democratic challenger Josh Segall appears to be closing the gap with U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers. Segall’s campaign reported last week new polls numbers from the Capital Survey Research Center showed Rogers leading 44.9 to 36.4 percent, with just shy of 19 percent still undecided.
Two months ago, the poll had Rogers ahead 54-33.
Admittedly, these are CSRC numbers, and the CSRC is the polling arm of the Alabama Education Association, the biggest player in this state’s Democratic politics. Anecdotally, some in Rogers’ camp insist that their polls show the incumbent still maintaining a strong lead, though those folks wouldn’t provide numbers or any information on the poll to which they referred.
I sat in on an editorial board interview with Segall yesterday (read the story and see a video clip here). Segall was aggressive and thorough, and it’s clear that he is determined to hammer away on his message about the economic development potential in the Third District and how Rogers has not only failed to tap it, but failed to protect it. We asked if he and Rogers have any debates scheduled; Segall said that the pair was to participate together at a town hall-style meeting this morning at WSFA-TV in Montgomery—it was to be the first time they have met face-to-face—but it’s unclear whether they will have any debate before Election Day.
All this to say, with apologies to Lee Corso, I tend to think this race is going to be closer than the experts think, but Segall still has his work cut out for him to close a nine- (or more) point gap in four weeks.
I’ve heard Segall say that the Third District has the highest concentration of African-American voters of any congressional district represented by a Republican.
You have to think that his campaign strategists wonder how much better their chances would be if Obama wasn’t further behind here than anywhere else in the country.