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28 hours to go?

Posted by on 08/19 at 12:01 AM

Drudge is all a-twitter about a report in the New York Times that Barack Obama has settled on his vice presidential choice and is readying his announcement, which could come within 30 or so hours of this posting.

According to those omnipotent, omnipresent, always-anonymous advisers, Obama just made the decision during his Hawaiian vacation last week—which means, if that’s true, he knew who his VP choice will be when he was sitting with Rick Warren at that huge forum on Saturday night.

The remarkable thing about this story is the story within the story: The Obama campaign is apparently going to great lengths—the NYT writers say the campaign is contriving an “elaborate rollout plan”—to properly stage the announcement.

We already know it will commence with a text message to millions of Obama’s closest and dearest supporters ... along with a bunch of nosy journalist-types like me who signed up to get the message just so we can see what everyone else is getting.

And from there, it’s all about the hype. The Obama campaign is using the press like a little toy to whip up enthusiasm and anticipation about the announcement—by talking about all the enthusiasm and anticipation about the announcement.

That’s what we call circular reasoning, folks.

Consider these comments from Obama’s anonymous advisers about the VP selection and announcement process:

Advisers hyped the secrecy of the announcement by enphasizing that the candidate’s deliberations were “remarkably closely held” and that “perhaps a half-dozen advisers were involved in the final discussions” as a way of enforcing the no-leak edict Obama issued to staff members. But the advisers did feel comfortable enough in this “cone of silence” (sorry; I couldn’t resist) to offer up three names as shortlisters—Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh, Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine of Virginia and Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden Jr.—just to fuel the speculation fire. In other words, big leak, bad; little leak, good!

According to these faceless advisers, Obama had notified neither his soon-to-be VP nor the almost-choices of their status as of late Monday. I don’t believe this. Either he’s notified the person, or he’s still deliberating. You don’t just drop in on someone and say, “Road triiiip!! Hop in; we’re going to travel the country for 10 weeks, and you might end up as the vice president of the United States when it’s all over!” The person has to have time to plan—especially if he (or she) is a governor (Kaine, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius). Keep in mind, if Obama had settled on a nominee but hadn’t told the person as of late Monday, that’s about 30 or so hours he or she will have to deal with the change. It’s just not possible from a practical perspective to expect someone to go to work at a State Capitol on Monday and basically disappear for 10 weeks—and maybe longer—fewer than 48 hours later.

Obama’s advisers said his decision came at the end of “what proved to be an unexpectedly intense process, condensed because he did not want to start actively vetting potential running mates before Clinton quit the race in June,” the Times says. But because of the shorter time period to find and vet someone, several Democrats observed that it appeared that only about six people were actually deeply vetted for VP, and the process was reportedly made easier by “the ability to turn up information on the Web.” (Remember when John McCain took so much heat for joking about his vice presidential selection, “Basically, it’s a Google”?"

When the announcement—whatever it is—actually does come, advisers say, it will break in text and e-mail messages to supporters early in the morning. The Obama-BFF tour of swing states will kick off, maybe even immediately after the news is made public.

As for the schedule, Obama is set to be in Orlando on Tuesday morning, in Raleigh, N.C., by Tuesday evening and in Virginia on Wednesday morning. But, the Times noted, “the Obama campaign has cautioned against reading anything into his schedule, saying it could be changed in an instant to accommodate the plan to introduce the running mate.”

Suuuure it could. Because we know presidential candidates don’t require ANY advance work, right?

Right.

And so, we wait ... bored, as usual ... left to our scary political prognostications and our goofy odds-on lists where we try to handicap the latest VP buzz. (Smart money tonight is on Biden at 25 percent, then Bayh at 11, then Clinton at 10 percent, though 37 percent are banking on “a wildcard,” if anyone’s wondering.)

One bonus: An early announcement by Obama today—or even a credible leak, even if it turns out to be wrong—would really help ... after all, it would mean Larry King would have to bump Bill Maher for a show on the pick.

I support anything that means I will be spared hearing anything, even accidentally, from Bill Maher.

So who’s it going to be? Let’s hear your best educated guesses and theories!

That doesn’t mean that I think Biden would be the best choice for veep in the event he had to take the reins of government in his hands. Nor does it mean that I think Biden as his running mate would do more to help Obama win the election than some other person might.

Posted by DonS on 08/19 at 04:27 AM

I’d bet on Biden. He would bring at least two things to Obama’s campaign where Obama is seen as being weak; the experience that comes with age and long-time public service, and presumed expertise in foreign policy because of his chairmanship of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Posted by DonS on 08/19 at 04:11 AM

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